“Decision Analysis: Introduction to the Discipline of Better Decision Making”
Ph.D. Candidate Mr. Philipp Rolf introduced the “Discipline of Better Decision Making” to the students of the Elite Master Program “Decision-Making Across Cultures”
Mr. Philipp Rolf, who is a Ph.D. Candidate at the University of Bayreuth at the Chair for Production Management and Industrial Management, delivered some insights on how decision-maker in the private sector are prepared to make “good” decision. His presentation referred to his Ph.D. Theses on „Proactive Decision-Making in Operational Research and Consumer Research Contexts”.
Decisions in private enterprises often have a complex structure. Managers have to find a way to deal with low frequency / high impact decisions, with the lack of information, unclear preferences, late feedback responses, and numerous trade-offs. For a professional conduct prospective decision-maker need to acquire a set of skills through practical experience. However, research on decision-making can accelerate the learning curve. Mr. Rolf presented some tools that have been developed to address multi-attribute evaluation problems, decision problems under uncertainty and probabilistic inference problems.
As an advocate for a forward-focused approach, Mr. Rolf argued that the decision-maker should specify values first before they identify and consider possible actions. According to Rolf, alternatives are a means to achieve certain values. Therefore, decision analysis should always start with the values at stake. The preferred values and objectives can serve as a compass to navigate through the subsequent decision-making process and the final implementation.
The lecture was very well perceived and concluded with a lively discussion between Mr. Rolf, students of the Elite Master Program “Decision-Making Across Cultures”, research fellows of the IKGF and members of the SDAC faculty.